Methodology

This page explains, in plain terms, how Nuvidence decides what to show, how confident it is, and how it handles the things it doesn't know. It is not a full technical specification — it's meant to make the reasoning behind what you see understandable.

Fact, claim, and inference

Nuvidence treats these as genuinely different things, and tries not to blur them:

FACT

A structured, sourced data point — a price, a filed EPS number, a report date. When Opender answers a question, it is grounded in these facts and instructed to defer to them, and a real-time check flags when its stated premise conflicts with one.

CLAIM

Something asserted by a source (a company press release, a news headline) that hasn't been independently structurally verified the way a fact has.

INFERENCE / MODEL INTERPRETATION

A conclusion drawn from evidence — for example, that a move looks unusually large relative to history. These are labeled as interpretation, not presented as fact.

How unusualness is measured

When Nuvidence says a move or reaction is unusual, it means the move is being compared against that specific stock's own real historical moves or earnings reactions — not a generic market-wide threshold. The sample size behind that comparison is shown, and a small sample is presented with visibly less confidence than a larger one, not hidden.

Sourcing

Where possible, company and financial facts are sourced from SEC EDGAR — the SEC's own public filing system — rather than an unnamed third-party data vendor. Market price and volume data comes from a real-time market data provider. When a fact can't be sourced reliably, Nuvidence says so rather than filling the gap with an estimate.

What "no verified catalyst found" means

Sometimes a stock moves and Nuvidence checks the available evidence — news, filings, earnings, sector activity — and finds nothing that reliably explains it. In that case, Nuvidence says exactly that, rather than treating a coincidentally-timed headline as a cause. News existing near a price move is not proof it caused the move; a lack of a confirmed catalyst does not mean nothing happened, only that nothing verifiable was found to explain it.

Opender

Opender is Nuvidence's assistant. It answers questions using the same structured evidence shown elsewhere on the page — it does not have a separate, ungrounded source of truth. Where a question involves a number Nuvidence has already computed (a price, an EPS figure, a historical reaction), Opender uses that computed value rather than recalculating or guessing one itself.

See About for what Nuvidence is and what it's for.